Even though the 2026 midterm elections are over a year and a half away, the early months of the second Trump administration suggest Republicans will lose big when the ballots are counted, and it’s not just because the party in power tends to fare poorly in midterms.
That’s the prediction from former House Republican congressman David Jolly, who told MSNBC host Alica Menedez this morning on the network, “What Donald Trump is doing with a collapsed Republican Congress is not good for the American people, regardless of your party registration.”
“I mean, as you described, these are ruby red seats, and the one in the panhandle in particular, [Ex-GOP Rep.] Matt Gaetz’s district has the military presence, but also so culturally conservative –– you know, we often joke about it being lower Alabama. I mean, this is this is a culturally conservative national security military, veterans-based district, and that district moved by about 17 points.”
“So the math is pretty simple here,” Jolly added. “If we saw Democratic districts in Florida move 15, 16, 17 points, imagine now if you’re an incumbent Republican and a five-point seat, a four-point seat, a six-point seat. You’re terrified. And you know, that’s about 30 to 40 members of Congress right now because now they’re coming for you next.”
Republicans currently hold a narrow seven-vote majority in the House, so 30 or 40 losses by GOP members would be a tremendous momentum swing and even give Democrats they need to hold up all of Donald Trump’s legislation. It would also provide Democrats the votes they need to impeach the felon-in-chief.
The GOP is riding high right now, but November 2026 will be here before you know it, and political fortunes can change overnight in the nation’s capital.
