There are only 85 days remaining before voters across the country decide the composition of the next Congress, and though there’s plenty of time for polls to shift back and forth in that time, it now appears that Democrats are likely to flip 8 Senate seats from Republicans.
Democrats only need to flip 4 seats to win control of the upper chamber of Congress, so double that number would give them the potential to block anything Donald Trump tries to do during his last two years in the White House and maybe even remove him from office via impeachment.
According to The Hill, the 8 states that appear favorable for Democrats are Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Nebraska, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.
Jessica Cook of the Cook Political Report explains that voter turnout in the primaries this year is indicative of what will likely happen when the ballots are counted in November. In other words, there’s a serious enthusiasm gap that doesn’t bode well for the GOP.
Here’s a closer look at each of the 8 states where Republicans look shaky, and Democrats appear likely to win.
ALASKA: The Democratic candidate, former Rep. Mary Peltola (Alaska), has flipped GOP states before and appears poised to do so once more against a weak Republican, incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan, whose vociferous support for Donald Trump’s foolhardy war with Iran has pulled down his poll numbers in recent months.
IOWA: This race is especially fascinating because it pits Iowa state Rep. Josh Turek, a Paralympic gold medalist who has received the backing of former President Barack Obama (who even appeared in a campaign ad with Turek), against GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson (Iowa), who has been endorsed by Donald Trump. Tariffs and the Iran war have hit farmers hard in the Hawkeye State, which makes Turek likely to win in what has historically been a Republican state.
KANSAS: Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) was once thought to be a shoo-in for reelection, but is facing an upstart Democratic opponent, Rev. Adam Hamilton, who is pastor of the largest United Methodist congregation in the U.S., Resurrection, in Kansas City. Farming is also a big issue in this race, and Trump’s tariff and trade policies have been devastating in parts of the state.
MAINE: This may well be the most closely watched Senate race in the nation, with incumbent GOP Sen. Susan Collins fading in the polls and facing a strong opponent, Troy Jackson, a logger who was once president of the state Senate. Collins’ support for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, despite accusations of sexual assault against him, is playing a major role in boosting Jackson’s polling numbers.
NEBRASKA: Incumbent GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts thought he had a clear path to another six-year term in the Senate, but independent Dan Osborn is proving to be a formidable opponent.
NORTH CAROLINA: The seat held by retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (who was urged to quit by Trump) features Republican Michael Whatley against former Tar Heel State Gov. Roy Cooper, who has never lost a political race in the state. Recent polls have Cooper up by as much as 9 points, and this race could be over with before a single vote is even cast.
OHIO: The Buckeye State has been electing Republicans to the Senate in recent elections, but their candidate this time is GOP Sen. Jon Husted, whom Gov. Mike DeWine (R) appointed to serve out the remainder of Vice President JD Vance’s Senate term. Also, Brown is a beloved figure in the state whose populist economic message is resonating with voters. Most polls show Brown up by as much as 4 points, but this one could take all night — and part of the next day — to declare a winner.
TEXAS: For decades, Democrats have dreamed of turning a Senate seat blue in the Lone Star State, but the last one to win there was Lloyd Bentsen in 1993. This race is one of sharp contrasts, with Trump-endorsed GOP Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton facing headwinds from his own personal scandals and hints of corruption, against Democrat James Talarico, who has a master’s degree in arts from a seminary and is comfortable speaking about his faith in a way some Texas Democrats haven’t been able to in the past. Polls have the two men in a statistical dead heat.
Eight to win and control the Senate. All it takes is a true Blue Wave. And that’s up to each of us as voters.
