The most closely watched Senate seat in the country could be on the verge of turning Democratic, according to CNN data analyst Harry Enten, and Texas Republicans are “running scared” as they look at the most recent polls showing a potential Blue Wave in the Lone Star State.
On Tuesday, so-called “President” Donald Trump endorsed Texas Secretary of State Ken Paxton in the GOP Senate race over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, and that has the Texas GOP in an uproar.
“Simply put, they’re looking at the numbers, they are looking at the numbers and the idea that Democrats can’t win in Texas – I want to put that to rest,” Enten explained. “They could very well do it, James Talarico could very well win in Texas, and I want to use a comparison point with 2018, because there was all this talk about Beto O’Rourke, right? Oh, could he beat Ted Cruz, he could beat Ted Cruz. The numbers at this point in that campaign, simply put, did not support that conclusion. But the numbers at this point absolutely support the conclusion that James Talarico can win.”
“James Talarico is polling better than any Democrat in at least 24 years,” Enten continued. “You have to go all the way back to 2002 to find a Democrat even polling anywhere close to where Talarico is polling right now. Texas Democrats have dreamt about turning it blue. This time the numbers actually support the idea that they may actually be able to do it.”
Paxton is a deeply flawed candidate, weighed down by a past impeachment, an indictment for securities fraud, and accusations by his wife that he committed adultery while they were married.
Enten then referenced the 2018 Texas Senate race that featured incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R) against former Congressman Beto O’Rourke.
“The idea that Ted Cruz was not that popular, that’s a falsehood,” Enten noted. “That is, simply put, a falsehood. You go back, again, just look at these differences right here, okay? Texas GOP candidate net favorability, Ted Cruz’s net favorability was actually plus-seven points in my average polls. Look what Ken Paxton is, the complete inverse of that. He’s seven points underwater, so look, again, you just look at the numbers.”
“In 2018 Democrats had this dream of turning Texas, the numbers didn’t support it in large part because Ted Cruz was actually decently popular, but Ken Paxton is anything but,” Enten added. “In poll after poll after poll, he is underwater. No wonder Republican senators are running scared, especially after that Trump endorsement of Paxton yesterday.”
Trump’s slumping poll numbers are also a problem for Paxton and the Texas GOP, according to Enten.
“Back in May 2018, Trump’s net popularity in Texas, he was at plus-four points, he was above water,” he said. “Again, we’re looking at the inverse of that. Trump is considerably less popular in Texas, which of course matches what we’re seeing nationally, which is that Donald Trump is less popular now than he was at this point in term one. You put it all together, you look at the general election polls, you look at the popularity of the potential Republican candidates they’ll be running for Texas Senate.”
“You look at Donald Trump’s popularity, as well, and you go, okay, Texas is absolutely in play,” he added. “Does that mean that Democrats will finally win their first Senate race since 1988 and Lloyd Bentsen? I’m not saying that, but it is a real possibility.”
If James Talarico does indeed beat Ken Paxton in November, there’s an excellent chance that Democrats will regain control of both the House and Senate, meaning long-overdue oversight of the Trump administration and the possibility of impeachment. This time, if the Blue Wave is large enough, we might even be able to remove Dementia Don from office.
