For the first time since the COVID pandemic, the American economy is headed for a deep recession that could well cost millions of workers their jobs and livelihoods, resulting in higher prices for everyone and economic uncertainty for millions.
The common denominator between the COVID recession and the one just around the corner is Donald Trump.
According to CNN, Goldman Sachs, a key Wall Street bellwether investment bank, says the United States is indeed on the path to an economic downturn.
“The US economy faces a growing risk of a recession as surging tariffs threaten to stunt growth, reignite inflation and lift unemployment, according to Goldman Sachs.”
“The Wall Street bank warned clients Sunday night that it now sees a 35% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, up from 20% previously.”
“Goldman Sachs also increased its inflation estimate, slashed its 2025 GDP forecast to just 1% and bumped up its year-end unemployment rate outlook by 0.3 percentage points to 4.5%.”
To quote the CNN report once again, “Underscoring that point, Goldman Sachs on Sunday increased its tariff assumptions for the second time in less than a month. The bank now expects the average US tariff rate to rise 15 percentage points in 2025, up from 10 points earlier this month and a level that was previously its ‘risk case.'”
Our trading partners will retaliate with tariffs of their own. They have no choice. And that’s where the news gets especially dire for American consumers.
For example, say you currently pay $5 for a hamburger at Wendy’s. Under the Trump tariff regime, that burger could soon cost you anywhere from $5.15 to $6, even if none of its contents are imported. Why? Because it gives companies an excuse for raising prices to boost their profits. For a family of four, that could mean an additional $4 in cost to feed everyone.
According to Goldman Sachs, the chances of recession in the next 12 months stands at 35%, up from their previous estimate of 20%.
While I certainly don’t claim to be as wise as the financial minds at Goldman Sachs, here’s my prediction: The United States will be in a deep recession by July of this year. And if the Trump tariffs continue, that recession will be deep and painful for the majority of Americans as 2025 comes to a close.
Of course, there’s always the chance that Trump will abandon his disastrous trade war and lift the tariffs, but that seems unlikely considering his past actions.
It’d be nice to think that Trump would indeed reverse himself and do what’s best for the American people. But he’s never shown any ability to admit he’s made a mistake, and that’s bad news for everyone.
A recession is coming, and it’s going to be one of the worst this country has ever seen.
